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Thursday, June 10, 2004

FYI

My PokerTracker databases are reaching maximum size with just under 2 million hands in them. A serious limitation for what I'm trying to do. I'm switching to MySQL and writing VB programs to administer them.

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Tuesday, June 08, 2004

Luck or Skill 1
For this week’s chart, I exported hands from one of my PokerTracker databases, all at $1-2 limit holdem tables and excluding any game I myself was involved in. I also filtered it to include only players who had at least 200 hundred hands represented. This yielded 793,571 hands from 1,534 players. I wanted to chart the often-used statistic in limit holdem, Big Bets earned per hour (BB/hr). Let’s see if there is a normal distribution and what the average earn might be. The poker literature throws two big blinds per hour out there as good performance at the higher levels.



Posted by Hello

The average was a negative 1.37 big bets per hour. The minimum was –35.62 with a maximum of 32.73. The standard deviation was 8.29 BB/hr.


Conclusions:
There is the makings of a bell curve present in the chart. This in itself tends to suggest that poker profits are random. If that were the case, it would also be saying that this is a negative expectation game. But, there are more losses here than can be accounted for by the rake alone. Next week, I’ll look more closely at the actual money distribution from this sample, including the rake. A major piece of information that is missing from the picture is that winners play more and win more. And there are tons of players playing a little and losing a lot. This might explain why the variance in this sample is so big!



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Tuesday, June 01, 2004

Running Good

My best earning month of poker was also the month that I spent the most time playing poker. I also spent more time working out at the gym and running in that month than any other since I’ve been playing. My worst month of poker dollar-wise was the month that I played the least, and I didn’t work out at all. Draw your own conclusions, but exercise helps me play longer and get in the right state of mind to win.

I’ve collected quite a few hand histories (over 1 million) since my last post. I’ll see where I can find some bell curves for next week's post.

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